Friends of Vocational Technical & Agricultural Education,
In the event you did not see this in the Boston Globe today, I am quite certain that you will find it of interest. I have highlighted some of the most interesting points.
This has numerous implications, in my opinion, in a number of ways. For example:
Potential for continuing declining enrollment of the school age population and the subsequent impact on smaller schools’ ability to offer appropriate learning opportunities for their students.
The critical need for skilled workers and additional capacity for Chapter 74 programming at the high school and postsecondary levels (i.e., CTI programs).
An increasingly growing need for skilled tradespersons for the construction (particularly housing) trades.
The online version of this piece includes some interesting graphical presentations and can be found at: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/04/18/business/massachusetts-population-leaving-domestic-outmigration-housing/?s_campaign=trendlines:newsletter
In my opinion, with record setting waiting lists statewide of 6,000 to 11,000 students (per DESE), the need for funding to expand vocational technical and agricultural training opportunities has never been more critical.
David
People are leaving Massachusetts in droves. Who are they?
By Dana Gerber and Kirkland An Globe Staff, Updated April 18, 2024, 5:49 a.m.
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<![endif]>Throughout the pandemic, policymakers and labor economists alike have sounded the alarm over the increasing number of people fleeing Massachusetts for other states — and what their exodus could mean for the state’s future.
Now, a new report has shed some light on who, exactly,these runaways are. And it probably does not bode well for the Bay State’s long-term economic competitiveness.
Earlier this month, Boston Indicators, the research arm of the Boston Foundation, published an analysis exploring trends in so-called domestic outmigration in Massachusetts,or people leaving for elsewhere in America. Looking at a two-year average across 2021 and 2022, the analysis found that the people moving out of Massachusettswere predominantly white, middle- and high-income earners, and college-educated.
Particularly dire: Working-age adults are leaving in droves. On net, Massachusetts lost an average of 22,631 people aged 25 to 44 across 2021 and 2022— the largest number of any age group and a marked increase over previous years, according to the report. For perspective, that’s about the size of the population of Winchester.
That age group “would normally start making up more of the labor market as they grow older,” said Peter Ciurczak, the author of the Boston Indicators report. “But if we lose them, they’re not going to be able to.”
For a state with a rapidly aging population and a relatively low birth rate, this spells trouble, said Mark Melnik, the director of economic and public policy research at the University of Massachusetts Amherst Donahue Institute, which studies population trends.
“It’s not just that we’re losing people,” he said. “We’re losing people while our resident workforce is aging out of the primary working ages.” To be sure, this problem is nothing new. “We’ve always been net losers on domestic outmigration, ”Melnik said, adding that young people are a historically transient group.
And there are signs of stabilization: Though Massachusetts saw dramatic levels of net outmigration in 2021 and 2022, the state got back in the black in 2023. Massachusetts experienced a positive net migration of nearly 11,500 residents from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, as international immigration numbers rebounded from pandemic-era lows.
In fact, Massachusetts received more immigrants between 2020 and 2023 than any other state as a percentage of overall population, according to a report released Thursday by the Pioneer Institute think tank.In 2023 about 51,000 net immigrants moved to Massachusetts, compared to the approximately 39,000 net domestic residents that departed the state “for greener pastures,” Pioneer said.
Even though domestic departures are nothing new, solving them is becoming more and more urgent for the labor market, as the state’s”silver tsunami,” looms: By 2030, about 21 percent of Massachusetts residents will be 65 or older, up from just under 14 percent in 2010, according to projections by the Donahue Institute.
“While COVID stopped the world for two years, and we kind of just froze everything, the one thing that kept happening was we kept getting older,” Melnik said.
The question then becomes: Why are so many working-agepeople leaving, and how do we stanch the losses?
“It’s always hard to pin any one reason down,” Ciurczak said, “but certainly, housing seems to be a big one.”
Housing costs in Massachusetts, particularly in the Boston region, are among the highest in the country. This is a top-of-mind concern for young people; a recent survey by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce Foundation found that among 20- to 30-year-olds in Greater Boston, the cost of rent and the ability to buy a home ranked among the most important factors in determining whether to stay or go. And as the pandemic ushered in a work-from-anywhere world — particularly for college-educated knowledge workers — those with the means to move decided they would get more bang for their buck elsewhere.
“Or even just any bang, honestly,” Ciurczak said. While the problems are well documented, what’s hazier are possible solutions. More housing production is a crucial piece of the puzzle, Melnik said, butMassachusetts needs an “all-in approach” to workforce development, such as targeted investments in the state’s Gateway Cities as well as groups that have lower labor force participation rates, such as people with disabilities, veterans, and people with criminal records.
“Realistically, there’s not going to be a new baby boom that’s going to solve this,” he said. “So in order to find the workers in the corners that you need to find them, it’s attraction and retention, it’s optimization of workers, and it’s creative solutions to make working easier.”